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Manufacturing Slump Recession Fears

05-10-2008   


 

Manufacturing Unit

Cohered with various sources of data presenting stagnation evidence within the services sector, figures reinforced fears of Britain enduring the first recession in over a decade whilst sparking expectations of the Bank of England cutting interest rates next week.

Money markets indicate a 90 per cent possibility of a quarter-point rate cut this coming Thursday with the prospect of further cuts ahead.

 "With these data and the recent extraordinary financial market turmoil, it now seems highly likely that the Monetary Policy Committee will cut rates at the October meeting next week" said Michael Saunders at Citi.

Fabric rolls

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/Markit reported its purchasing managers' index descended to 41 in September from a downwardly revised 45.3 in August. The devastating decrease was much below the predicted forecast of 45 and the lowest since the series began in 1992.

Analysts speculated if data generated appeared as meagre as the companion manufacturing survey, there was a risk rates could be cut by half a point next week. Many economists believe the rate cut is just too little too late and our economy will remain in jeopardy of slipping into a recession.

The crisis taking hold of the financial sector and the seizing up of the global economies results in the Bank of England's lending rate no longer holds any influence over the cost at which companies raise funds.

The collapse in manufacturing set to disappoint policymakers wishing for a weaker pound would assist the sector picking up some of the slack as the consumer sector slowed down.





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