It Must Be 2009, Cause the Calendar says So!!!!

Wishing you all a very Happy New Year!

Whether you rang in the New Year in a very jubilant Big Apple with the dropping of the giant crystal ball in Times Square or with the dropping of the "giant pineapple" ( yes, I did say pineapple…I was there to witness it!) in Sarasota, Florida  ….think I can safely say that all involved in retail and manufacturing are ready to close the books on 2008 and move forward into 2009.

 
The next week will be quite telling as US retailers announce December sales figures and year end results. For sure, results are expected to be dismal at best for a majority of stores as we feel the impact of the current recessionary economy. Earliest predictions are calling for the closure of many unproductive doors for major department as well as specialty chains like Ann Taylor even Starbucks!. There is also the threat that their will be "losers" as many well known stores as well as clothing brands will become the latest  "casualties" as they have no choice but to close their business.

Earliest figures have indicated that the list of losers includes;

•     Apparel…. with women's taking a bigger hit than men's

•     Electronics….with higher priced items like flat screen TV's the biggest disappointment

•      Luxury items like jewelry and  "It" handbags 
  

But there will be will also be "winners" who will weather the storm and get stronger …….

•      Kohls and Forever 21 are expanding as they take advantage of location opportunities that became vacant after the demise of retailers who closed already in ‘08

•     Wal-Mart has already enjoyed a strong business trend in '08 as the aspirational customer traded down

•     Even McDonalds is expected to end the year on the plus side as they added healthy items to their menu & expanded opening hours

•     Online retailers benefited particularly in the last week before Christmas as ice and snow storms across the US kept customers at home

As I shopped in stores and malls post Christmas it was obvious that even though retailers sharply cut prices and offered reductions up to 80% there remains a high carry over of Fall & Holiday apparel. The sharp markdowns did seduce customers and got them in the stores but they bought selectively & ran! Remaining stocks look tired and picked over.

It is also obvious that Spring '09 receipts have been held back vs LY in a effort to clear Fall/Holiday merchandise.  Fresh receipts are usually the stimulus for spending for any customer who received a gift card or holiday cash!

Department stores from moderate to better showed signs of minimal spring conversion. Spring '09 merchandise was most obvious in private brand programs and luxury designer brands.  

I was particularly surprised to see the lack of spring merchandise on the floor at specialty chains. The exceptions were;

•      A&F, American Eagle and Aeropostale had fresh receipts in their classics; polo's & stripe woven shirts, denim

•     J Crew looked great ….it was the most converted by far with new styles & vibrant color statements in sweaters, pants, tee shirts and accessories. They had a full selection of new Capri & Bermuda short bodies using the advertising handle:"It's warm somewhere".. They gave the customer a reason to spend money & kick off spring!

The earliest fashion statements for Spring '09 currently in stores included;

•      Tie dye and hombre looks in knit tops, sweaters, skirts & accessories

•      Broomstick skirts & dresses in silk and cotton…very ethnic looking

•      Safari trench jackets, cargo pants & jumpsuits… very drapey in neutral color stories like khaki, okra, olive green

•      In color stories, shades of purple continued but freshest are the coral to pinks, turquoise & greens, vibrant yellow & tangerine

•      Prints continue in florals; watercolor, tropical & bold,  new executions of animal & reptile patterns

•      Stripes in classic or fashion color combos

•      Bold embellishment statements on necklines & handbags

•      Metallics; as a screen print, as a mixed yarn in spring fabrics, obvious oversized buttons on apparel & sandals

•     Statement jewelry pieces; earrings & necklaces

•      Long scarves for double wrapping around the neck in hombre  & ethnic patterns

 
As the '08 financial year comes to closure in the next week, all will be holding their breath and hoping to stay alive to take on an equally challenging 2009!

Stay tuned for the final results…… there's more drama to come!

Cheryl